澳洲論文代寫 > management assignment > > 正文

management assignment

BUSS 5292 Topic 6 Identifying possible risks 代寫

1BUSS 5292 Topic 6 Identifying possible risks 代寫
Risk Management
BUSS 5292
Topic 6
Identifying possible risks:
Brainstorming, Delphi, and analogies
1
Course Facilitator: Kesten Green
Study Period 1, 2016
Identify all risks: costs & benefits
Why?
q?Use limited resources efficiently
q?Avoid making the situation worse
How?
q?Use structured methods
q?That are evidence-based
2
Creativity for identifying risks
The following (“newspaper”
shaded background) slides are
selected and adapted from
Wharton School Professor Scott
Armstrong’s creativity lecture
slides.
The original slides are available
from AdvertisingPrinciples.com
3
2
Which list describes crea.ve people?
(Persuasive Adver,sing p 279)
A
fun-loving
sociable
meek
supportive
extroverted
aesthetically sensitive
gentle
patient
concerned with others
B
compulsive
aggressive
argumentative
ambitious
independent
hostile
anxious
enthusiastic
Less-creative  More-creative
Click again to see the answer.
Source: Ng (2001)
4 BUSS 5292 Topic 6 Identifying possible risks 代寫
Adprin.com
Hiring crea.ve people
Assume that you want to hire creaCve people for adverCsing.
How would you do this? Write your answers in your learning
diary then click for answers.
1.?Use pre-specified evidence-based criteria (e.g., on personality
or cogniCve skills).
2.?Ask for evidence of creaCvity in their prior work.
3. Give a test that is a sample of the job they would do.
4. Do not meet the person unCl aRer deciding that you want to
hire that person (For a summary of the research, see
Grove, et al. 2000; for an example of an applicaCon, see this
review of Moneyball).
How many of these does your organizaCon use?
5
How can you harness the crea.vity
of a group of people?
“ If you had to idenCfy, in one word, the reason why the
human race has not achieved, and never will achieve
its full potenCal, that word would be ‘meeCngs.’ ”
(Dave Barry)
“Search the parks in all the ciCes, you won’t find statues
of any commiZees.” (David Ogilvy)
If you must meet in groups, keep the groups small and
have a facilitator who structures the mee.ngs.  (See
Persuasive AdverCsing, p. 285)
6
Adprin.com
3
Virtual groups: Specula.on
Benefits
Saves Cme (scheduling, traveling, no show, idle banter)
Enhances creaCvity (fewer distracCons)
Allows for analysis (self-paced)
Provides good records (and individual contribuCons
apparent)
Costs
Less fun for some people
If someone does not contribute, it is obvious
Requires more thinking; pressure to perform
Some are unable/unwilling to do things independently
7
Adprin.com
Stages in developing crea.ve ideas
Do each stage separately:
–?Generate ideas
–?Evaluate ideas
8
Adprin.com
Structure the problem first
Structuring cannot be done in groups.
Individuals work separately to structure problems
then meet to seek agreement.
Seek structures that are based on evidence.
One useful tool: Checklists.
9
4
Problem Storming
The way that you state a problem can limit your
creativity in finding possible solutions.
Problem-storming: Write alternative ways of
stating the problem (problems often imply
solutions).
Try to think of an application you could make.
Write this.
10
Brainstorming
•?Brainstorming uses a highly structured set of rules in a
face-to-face sefng.
•?The rules are designed to reduce evaluaCon,* aim only at
quanCty, and ensure that no ideas are lost.
•?The process requires a trained facilitator (who does not
contribute ideas), and a person who records ideas.
•?In pracCce, brainstorming is expensive and rarely used.
* The original design was to discourage negaCve
evaluaCon. Later research found that posiCve evaluaCon
was even more damaging.
11
Adprin.com
Brainwriting procedure
Each individual writes as many ideas as they can on
the topic
If in a meeting, take a time-out for this.
Software is available
12  BUSS 5292 Topic 6 Identifying possible risks 代寫
5
Brainwri.ng is more efficient and crea.ve
than brainstorming
BrainwriCng is superior to brainstorming:
–?Less expensive (no need for a trained leader or recorder)
–?No need to meet (people can work when convenient)
–?An effecCve way to remove group pressure
–?Easier to keep ideas anonymous
–?Shown to foster creaCvity
Use brainwri.ng, not brainstorming as shown by
experimental studies  (Gallupe, BasCanuf & Cooper 1993)
BrainwriCng is parCcularly useful when done electronically . 
13
Adprin.com
Enhancing brainwriting
•?Checklists allow brainwriting to be directed at
each aspect of a problem.
•?Gallery writing: Participants prepare unsigned
lists of their ideas for groups. These are
posted on large sheets of paper, overhead
projectors, or blackboards. This approach is
effective and participants like it (See
Aiken & Vanjani 2003).
14
Problem storming
The way you state the problem will drive the
solution. How many different ways can you state
the problem?
Brainwrite problem statements for the elevator
problem.
Examples:
•?How can we make people happy while they
wait? Brainwrite solutions.
•?Are there other ways to get people to other
floors? Brainwrite solutions.
15
6
Elevators: A design problem
People in a 30 story apartment building are
complaining about the long wait for elevators.
There are two elevators and there is no room
to add a third elevator in the building.
Your group has been asked to suggest solutions.
You have three minutes.
If working alone, generate at least 5 solutions.
16
Problem storming
•?What problem are you solving? The way you state
the problem implies a soluCon – and can restrict
creaCvity. Brainwrite at least 5 ways to state the
problems.
•?Example 1: How can we make people happy?
•?Example 2:
Are there other ways to get people to other floors?
17
Keeping unusual ideas alive
Problem: Unusual ideas tend to die quickly
A solu,on: Nurture ideas using the “Build”
technique.
1. Listen
2. Suspend evaluaCon
3. Find ways to improve ideas
18
Adprin.com
7
Develop ac.on steps for applica.ons
Write a plan for applying at least one technique
from this session.
Be explicit about what you will do.
Set a Cme deadline for compleCng the
applicaCon.
19
Adprin.com
Advice on learning
One study found that fewer than 10% of students
were successful in applying new knowledge.
•?This rose to 20% when students acCvely applied
what they were taught during a class session.
•?It then rose to 90% when students worked with
a learning partner and coached each other.
20
Adprin.com
The Delphic oracle
Experts can sometimes
make accurate estimates/
picks/forecasts,…
but need to use
structured methods
21
8
The Delphi Technique
1.?Determine the question to be answered
2.?Can expert judgment help? If yes,
3.?Establish a Delphi job using the free software on
forecastingprinciples.com
4.?Invite experts to participate
5.?Experts anonymously forecast/estimate/choose, and
6.?Provide reasons
7.?Administrator posts anonymous feedback
8.?Repeat 5 to 7 until little change
9.?Median or mode is Delphi forecast/estimate/choice.
22
Delphi Freeware on ForPrin.com
23  BUSS 5292 Topic 6 Identifying possible risks 代寫
Delphi applications
Example Delphi forecasting applications*
q?the Argentine power sector
q?broadband connections
q?dry bulk shipping
q?leisure pursuits in Singapore
q?rubber processing
q?Irish specialty foods
q?oil prices
q?intelligent vehicle highway systems
q?forecasting prisoner numbers
q?choosing between regional development options
*Actual applications from Green, Armstrong, Graefe (2007)
24
9
Your Delphi applications
What problems can you use
the Delphi Technique for?
25
Structured analogies
It may be new to you, and
You think your situation is
special, but…
It’s happened before!
26
Structured Analogies method*
1.?Describe the problem (target situation)
2.?Select and recruit experts who are likely to know about
similar situations (analogies)
3.?Ask the experts to identify and describe as many analogies
as they are able to, and…
4.?Match the outcomes of the analogies to possible outcomes
of the target situation
5.?Ask the experts to list similarities and differences between
the analogies and the target, then…
6.?Rate similarity of each analogy to the target (0 to 10)
7.?Most-similar analogies provide best assessment of how
the problem situation is likely to turn out
*See Green & Armstrong (2007) in IJF
27
10
Structured Analogies applications
1.?Forecasting decisions in diverse conflict
situations, e.g.
a.?Union-management disputes
b.?Pay negotiations
c.?Corporate takeover battle
d.?Warfare
2.?Forecasting take-up of government
programmes in Europe
3.?Forecasting sales of new products
4.?Your risk management applications?
28
BUSS 5292 Topic 6 Identifying possible risks 代寫

tag:
下一篇:沒有了

Contact us / 聯系我們

QQ: 273427
QQ: 273427

Online Service / 在線客服

Hours / 服務時間
全天24小時為您服務

熱情 專業 誠信 守時
Copyright ? 2008-2018 assignment代寫

在線客服

售前咨詢
售后咨詢
微信號
Essay_Cheery
微信

在線客服

售前咨詢
售后咨詢
微信號
Essay_Cheery
微信
英国代写_数学代写_c++/c代写_留学生代写怎么查出来?